ROME, Italy / RankWire.AI / – Global cereal stocks are forecast to rise by 17.2 million tonnes, or 1.8%, by the close of seasons in 2027, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said. The increase largely reflects higher wheat inventories in Russia and Ukraine, where export disruptions are causing supplies to build up. FAO published the forecast in its latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief on Friday, November 6.
World cereal production is forecast to retreat from its 2025 record in 2026, while remaining at its second-highest level on record at 2,999 million tonnes. Output is expected to decline across all major cereals, most markedly for wheat. Coarse grains are forecast to register only a marginal decrease. The global cereal stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 32.4%, slightly above the previous season’s level. The brief updates FAO’s earlier forecasts for the 2026 season.
Rice output set to shrink
Rice production is set to contract for the first time in four seasons, falling 2.5% to 552 million tonnes. FAO said the decline largely reflects poor producer margins and adverse weather linked to El Niño. Global rice stocks are also expected to fall, to 216.5 million tonnes, though that would still be the second-highest level on record. World rice trade is forecast to rise 2.9% to 61.6 million tonnes in 2027.
World cereal utilization in 2026/27 is forecast to rise marginally, by 0.2%, to 2,971 million tonnes. Food consumption accounts for most of the expected increase, which amounts to 5.6 million tonnes. Food use of wheat is seen rising by 0.8% and rice by 1.0%, slightly below the pace of global population growth. The figures come as FAO has also highlighted the scale of global food waste and its cost to economies.
Wheat trade falls 8.6%
World trade in cereals in 2026/27 is forecast to contract by 3.3%, or 17.4 million tonnes, to 507.7 million tonnes. A fall of 8.6% in wheat trade, or 18.1 million tonnes, is the main driver, with shipments from all major exporters declining amid supply or logistical constraints. Maize trade, by contrast, is forecast to grow 2.2%. Russia has long been a top wheat supplier, after record grain exports in 2024.
FAO’s Food Price Index, released the same day, averaged 133.9 points in October, down 1.2% from September but 5.9% higher than a year earlier. The cereal price index fell 4.5%, as wheat prices dropped after four monthly gains on subdued demand and improved production prospects, notably in Argentina. Maize prices eased from a three-year high reached in September. Expectations that Black Sea export constraints will ease also weighed on wheat.
Other food prices moved in different directions. Sugar prices jumped 6.6% to their highest level since December 2024, on rain disruptions in Brazil and production concerns in India, the European Union and Thailand. The vegetable oil index rose 0.3%, while dairy prices fell 1.1% and meat prices slipped 1.2%. The overall index remains 16.4% below its March 2022 peak. Rice prices rose 1.6% on harvest delays, adverse weather and rising costs.